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Analisis Penjalaran Kekeringan Meteorologi Menuju Kekeringan Hidrologi pada DAS Larona

机译:拉罗纳流域水文干旱的气象干旱成因分析

摘要

Hydrological drought is water deficit from normal conditions on the hydrological system. Hydrological drought occurs through a complex process preceded by a rainfall deficit. The series of processes that show a change of drought signals through the hydrological cycle is expressed as drought propagation. This study aims to identify the characteristics of hydrological and meteorological drought and to identify meteorological drought propagation to hydrological drought through Larona Watershade. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as indicator to identify meteorological drought while hydrological drought is characterised by Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI) with 1, 3, 6 and 12 months accumulation periods. Propagation meteorological drought to hydrological drought was analyzed using Pearson correlation. The results showed that duration and severity escalate by the increase in the accumulation period SPI and SSI. While the number of drought events is inversely proportional to the accumulation period SPI and SSI. Althought the number of hydrological drought events was fewer, but they occurred over longer duration and much severe than the meterological one. Severe hydrological drought (SSI 1 = -14.8) in 1997-1998 has declined water storage of Lake Towuti by 90% leading to reduction in Larona hydropower production. Furthermore, our findings provide promising approach to detect hydrological drought that may occur in the near future.
机译:水文干旱是水文系统正常状况下的缺水情况。水文干旱是通过一个复杂的过程发生的,随后是降雨不足。通过水文循环显示干旱信号变化的一系列过程表示为干旱传播。这项研究的目的是确定水文和气象干旱的特征,并确定气象干旱通过拉罗纳水闸向水文干旱的传播。标准化降水指数(SPI)用作识别气象干旱的指标,而水文干旱的特点是具有1、3、6和12个月累积期的标准化流量指数(SSI)。使用Pearson相关分析了气象干旱到水文干旱的传播。结果表明,持续时间和严重程度随着SPI和SSI累积时间的增加而增加。而干旱事件的数量与累积周期SPI和SSI成反比。虽然水文干旱事件的数量较少,但它们发生的时间更长,并且比计量学的干旱事件严重得多。 1997-1998年的严重水文干旱(SSI 1 = -14.8)使Towuti湖的蓄水量减少了90%,导致拉罗纳水电发电量减少。此外,我们的发现为检测可能在不久的将来发生的水文干旱提供了有希望的方法。

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